Blog post by Indigro independent agronomists
Last month, Svein Tore Holsether, Chief Executive of Yara International appeared on BBC News to discuss the fertiliser shortage and high prices. This highlighted, to those unaware, that this shortage is leading us into a global food crisis. Svein said, “For me, it’s not whether we are moving into a global food crisis – it’s how large the crisis will be” (BBC News, 2022).
For UK farmers the current increased price of fertiliser and expected shortages have caused concern and left many unsure of how they should use the fertiliser they have purchased this season and what they should plan for next season.
There are many different situations on farm, as some bought much of their fertiliser around 80p per Kg of nitrogen (N). However, many didn’t have the capacity, or the storage, so have bought much of their fertiliser at a significantly higher price. Therefore, the strategy that should be adopted is different for each individual farm depending on the price of their fertiliser, the crops they are growing currently, contracts that they have and the potential for them to buy and store fertiliser for next season. However, most farmers have very good crops in the ground and with grain prices at £250 plus, it is clear that looking after these crops as best as possible will be crucial.
To help our farmers decide how much fertiliser they should be using this season, Indigro hosted a nitrogen fertiliser strategy meeting last week where we demonstrated our tailor-made nitrogen dose response and break-even calculator. By talking through different scenarios as a group, we demonstrated that those who had bought their fertiliser comparatively well this year should be using a similar rate of nitrogen to their normal applications. However, those that have bought much of their nitrogen at a higher price will need to cut back their rates to reflect this and produce the best gross margin considering the cost of fungicide, PGR, herbicide, and fixed costs.
Whilst every scenario differed there were some key take-aways for all. The first being that much of our return on investment comes from the first 100 kg/ha of Nitrogen, and even at £2.68kg N, providing grain price stays at £250/T, use of around 140kg N is still the best return on investment. Consequently, anything saved this year can be seen as an investment for next, especially if there is limited availability. The dose response curve also demonstrates the last 50-70kg N carries the greatest risk. At today’s prices the 50-70kg N will not have such a significant return on investment and therefore this is the area to focus any reductions. For those growing milling wheats there is less flexibility to reduce the yield building nitrogen, meaning the premium for milling wheat must outweigh the cost of fertiliser.
This is all a planning exercise, and the decisions need to be monitored in the field throughout the season utilising sources of nitrogen, other than synthetic where possible. To assist with this, Indigro have carried out many N-Cores across different soil types to understand the nitrogen already available in the soil. We will also be carrying out N-tester leaf clipping and utilising N-sensors and satellite imagery for variably applied nitrogen. As many of our clients practice regenerative agriculture, they are at an advantage of having higher levels of available nitrogen in their soils through historic practices of increasing soil organic matter through direct drilling, diverse rotations, inclusion of livestock, organic amendments, and cover cropping. Many clients are also trialling the use of permanent white clover understories to help fix some free nitrogen.
In an ideal world, before farmers procure their fertiliser, they would know the price of the commodities they are producing. However, like most things in farming, procuring fertiliser in the coming seasons will be based on a risk management strategy and by using the best available advice, science and technology to minimise that risk.
To find out more about Indigro independent agronomists follow this link Indigro https://indigro.co.uk/
